9 Apr 2009

Tennis Betting: Murray's Miami masterclass means more than just another trophy

Simon Mundie explains the significance of Andy Murray's win at the Miami Masters as he goes through the "who's who" of former winners and what they went on to achieve after wining in Florida. And it allows us to dream about Wimbledon glory without being branded lunatics....

Another week, another win for Britain's greatest male tennis player for over 60 years. But this one was a little bit more special than the rest. It may theoretically be on the same level as the Masters titles the Scot won at the end of 2008 in Cincinatti and Madrid, but Miami holds a unique spot within the tennis calendar. The tournament, previously known as the Lipton International Players Championships, the Ericsson Open and the NASDAQ-100 Open, is often described as as the unofficial 'fifth Grand Slam'.

The roll call of past winners gives a clear indication of why the tournament is held in such high regard. Since 1988, all but two of the men who have stood holding the Miami trophy aloft have been Grand Slam champions. The only two that have failed to go from Miami winner to major winner since 1988 are Marcelo Rios, whose best result in a slam was to reach the final of the Australian Open in 1998 where he lost to Petr Korda, who was infamously later banned for taking prohibited drugs. The other champion yet to make the transition to major winner is Nikolay Davydenko, who still does have time to add a Slam to his collection, although it's looking increasingly unlikely.

Part of the reason for it being held in such high esteem by players, fans and pundits alike is its format- it's one of the only events on either tour to involve more than 64 players and where main draw play extends longer than just the one week, thus recreating conditions akin to those experienced during the cauldron of a Grand Slam fortnight. Furthermore, as the players themselves view it so highly, they're going all out to win it. That's not necessarily the case with other tournaments, including other masters events, as witnessed by the spate of withdrawals from several masters events over the last few years, particularly as the season draws to a close.

Looking at the winners list since 1988, it's also true to say that nearly all the players who have held the trophy aloft have been at one time or other the world's best player at some point during their career- putting it more or less on a par with the Australian Open. Furthermore, since 1988, most of the Miami Champions won a Grand Slam title during the same season. Roger Federer's ([2.72] to win a major this year, [1.73] to win none) wins came during his best seasons in 2005 and 2006; Andre Agassi won the title during his superb 1995 campaign, and Pete Sampras' best years on tour were 1993 and 1994: the years he first won the Miami title. Of those that did win the title but failed to grab a Grand Slam crown, most enjoyed career-best seasons. Marcelo Rios won in 1998- the year he reached number one in the world, while Michael Chang took the title in 1992, again during one of his best years when he was but a hair's breadth from winning the US Open.

More recently, Andy Roddick ([10.0] to win a major this year) won the title in 2004 having just won the US Open crown a few months previously and being within a whisker of taking the no.1 crown from Federer, and Novak Djokovic ([3.0] to win a major this year) won in 2007, preceding his run to the US Open final that year and the Australian Open win at the start of the following season.

So forget Cincinatti and Madrid, outstanding victories that they were- this tournament victory is the one that shows Andy Murray is truly ready to be a Grand Slam Champion and he's a [3.35] chance to become one this year. He dismantled Djokovic in the final, looking in total control throughout; he beat the most improved member of the top ten in Juan Martin Del Potro for the third time out of three meetings in the semi-finals; and his recent records against Federer and Nadal, the Indian Wells final played in freakish conditions notwithstanding, suggest he is quite possibly the world's best player at present.

Murray said before his Indian Wells and Miami campaigns that Miami was the one he was gunning for, and he was true to his word. Reaching the Indian Wells final after being laid low with a virus for a few weeks previously was an incredible achievement in itself, but to then go on and win Miami convincingly shows Murray totally believes in himself, which counts for everything during a major tournament.

So when will this Grand Slam win come? Well you can rule out the French Open, Nadal is simply too good on clay. However, Wimbledon is a distinct possibility- the Scot would fancy his chances against Nadal on grass, and it would appear unless Federer makes some dramatic changes, he will start no higher than third favourite.

Djokovic's stock has slipped even further, with question marks over his attitude, his physical conditioning and his new racket. Of the newcomers, Tsonga's game would be best suited to the grass of Wimbledon, and he could literally blow the likes of Murray away with a full-blooded onslaught.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if Murray starts as second favourite at SW19, and unseats the current world number one to be the first homegrown Champion since Fred Perry in the 1930s. That would be a fairytale, and would confirm him as one of the world's best two players. Murray is [3.05] to end year as world number 2 and [5.0] to finish as world number 1). He certainly looked every bit that good in winning Miami last week. Murray himself will tell you the US Open is his best shot at glory, but it's nice to believe in fairytales, and Murray is good enough to provide one on the lawns of SW19.