ATP Rankings: On the slide
What do Djokovic, Davydenko, Blake and Ferrer have in common, asks Simon Mundie. The answer lies in a loss of form and a need to re-address their game before the young guns overtake them in the rankings.
Andy Murray, in winning the Madrid Masters title, took another giant step forward towards the summit of the men's game. He looked every bit a potential Grand Slam winner, and quite possibly the next world number 1, which is amazing when you remember that reaching the quarter finals of Wimbledon in the summer was considered to be progress enough. Since that minor breakthrough, his confidence has snowballed, and you could argue that on current form he is the best player in the world.
In his last three tournaments, he has won two Masters Series shields, surpassing both Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski's career Masters wins, and reached a Grand Slam final. There is no doubt that it's no longer simply the so called 'big three' who are the main contenders for the games big titles; it is in fact the 'big four', and since Wimbledon Murray has definitely put that other young pretender to the Nadal-Federer duopoly, Novak Djokovic, somewhat in the shade.
So what's happened to Novak? He is still World number 3 by some margin, thanks mainly to his incredible form at the beginning of the year. Up until the end of the clay court season, Djokovic was the best player in the world. He defeated Roger Federer in straight sets on the way to winning the Australian Open, and followed that up with Masters wins at Indian Wells and Rome. It looked very much like Federer could be about to be surpassed by both Nadal and Djokovic in the rankings.
And then came Wimbledon, and a confidence knocking second round defeat to Marat Safin. In losing to the mercurial Russian that day, the Serb looked weary, both mentally and physically. Since then, he has struggled to reproduce his early season form, losing to Andy Murray twice, Jo Wilfred Tsonga and Ivo Karlovic, as well as Nadal and Federer. The pressure of being one of the players to beat seems to have told on Djokovic, and he looks tired and keen to finish the season. The same thing happened to him last year, where he failed to win a match at the Masters Cup. His decline, though, is only slight and is certainly not terminal. He is still a Grand Slam contender and possible World number 1, although don't expect his results for the rest of this season to be of that calibre.
Nikolay Davydenko's powers seem to be on the wane somewhat too, although unlike Djokovic this could be the beginning of the end for the dour Russian. He may have just secured his spot at the season ending Masters Cup in fifth place, but his form in recent months has rarely been of the quality one would expect from the true World number 5. Since Wimbledon, he has reached only one quarter final, and that was in front of his home crowds in Moscow, where he lost to his more popular countryman Marat Safin.
Davydenko's season peaked when he won the Miami Masters in March, comprehensively outplaying Nadal in the final. But Davydenko is a one dimensional player, and since the likes of Andy Murray and Giles Simon have shown that variety can be an effective weapon against the best, the Russian has looked limited. His decline echoes that of Ivan Ljubicic, world number 3 just a couple of years ago. It would be a surprise if Davydenko was ranked as high as fifth this time next year.
Also on the slide is last years Masters Cup runner up, David Ferrer. He hasn't looked like one of the world's best in recent months, and has been soundly beaten by up and comers like Janko Tipsrevic and Juan Martin Del Potro. It was always felt that Ferrer did very well to reach the heights he did, as there is nothing remarkable about his style of play.
However, as younger players with more to their games have started to make their mark, he has been made to look somewhat impotent out on court. As his aura has started to seep away, more players have been able to exploit his limitations and dictate play. I fear we may have seen the best of David Ferrer, certainly away from clay courts, in much the same way as his countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero faded a few years ago. He should still qualify for this years Masters Cup, and should set out to enjoy the experience, for he may find it's the last time he competes there.
There is, sadly, one more top ten player who looks like his days amongst the games true elite are coming to an end. That player is the popular American James Blake. He's yet to win a title this year and, despite recording his first career win against Roger Federer, has appeared increasingly vulnerable.
Blake has always gone out on court and simply let fly with his groundstrokes, particularly his forehand. When he's on form, he can beat anyone in the world; that approach to the game even giving him an edge over Rafael Nadal until fairly recently. But of late he's looked short of ideas, and simply blasting the ball hasn't looked enough, particularly as up and comers like Ernest Gulbis hit the ball just as hard, but with variety and finesse too.
All of a sudden Blake's style of play seems dated, as does Davydenko and Ferrer's. The new crop of players who are just behind the big four include the likes of Gulbis, Del Potro and Simon. These guys have big games, speed around the court and are comfortable defending as they are attacking. They will be the players who challenge the big four for the games big titles over the next twelve months and beyond, and the likes of Davydenko, Ferrer and Blake had better get used to it.
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