Big week for reporting. Will the markets stay up?
Daily View - 10th November 2008
Now we have to ask ourselves the million dollar question. Is this the turn of the markets or is it just a bear market bounce?
We are 850 points (fully 23pc) from the lows of two weeks ago but somehow it does not feel particularly joyous just at the moment. With the global position worsening by the day the UK looks to be in a perilous position with the Public Sector overdraft projected to reach truly astronomical numbers. And here I am not including the propping up of the banks. Unusual in the extreme, at least the State is getting something for its money with the recapitalisation of the financial sector. At least they are not actually having to write off large sums as other nation states are doing. At the moment the new money going in is likely to be repaid (with 12pc interest) which, given that the Treasury can issue gilts at around 3 to 4pc, makes high street lending margins appear genuinely generous.
As the prop to our service sector of ever cheaper consumer goods and loans gets weaker just as the economic 'miracle' of 'Our Gordon' is finally revealed to be just so much star dust the resultant growth expectations get ever more pessimistic. The love/hate affair with the city has generally disguised the fact that (as a whole) the small square mile of tower blocks has been, for many, many years, the UK's only world class industry attracting top class recruits from across the globe. The woes of the banking industry as a whole (not just the UK's banks) have overshadowed the huge input to the countries finances that the City has made. Most countries have very large 'invisibles' outflows but here in Britain this is reversed. The Trade figures are truly dreadful but without the financial services sector they would be even worse.
Anyway ...the week ahead. This week is a heavy reporting one and we may well see quite a few deviations from expectation, both up and down.
Tuesday
Today sees Vodafone step up to the plate and the numbers are expected to be robust with forecasts of rising revenues and an increased profit to around £5.6bn. Two weeks ago the stock reached 96p which gave a yield of around 8pc for a company with a massive revenue stream and a growing (albeit more slowly) market footprint. We subsequently bounced to 120p but have slid in recent sessions to the current 108p on fears over these numbers. The fact is that a mobile phone (plus bits and pieces) has become, effectively a utility in the west and will probably do the same across the globe. Unless another ridiculous G3 extravaganza takes place the revenue flows look far more stable than most.
Aveva (another of these weirdly named 'viv', 'av' or whatever companies) come with a trading update and the company is suffering from being one of the most negatively analysed companies in the FTSE 350. with the stock having more than halved it is still on a p/e of over 14 last years earnings and on a sub 1pc yield. In these days of finding secure places for your funds the stock has not exactly shone out.
Dairy Crest is also due to release interims but seems to have done a 'pre-release' this morning (Monday) saying the world is grim and numbers will be weak. Profits are expected to be 10pc below forecasts and the stock is suffering. On a day when the FTSE 250 has rallied some 250 points the stock is 60p lower at 270p. We are probably going to have to get used to this effect where the general view is hopeful but the specific numbers are grim.
Wednesday
Land Securities will be releasing data and the hope will be that the numbers will not be as bad as feared. The stock is now back at 2004 levels which probably reflects valuations but, back then, we were in a growth period which would have been represented in the stock. Now we are looking at continued contraction for several quarters, the stock is below asset value at the moment (which should be good) but this will depend on security of income and it is here that the jury is still out. The huge falls of the last 20 months (this stock started falling well before the credit crunch emerged) seem to be tempting, especially in such a solidly run operation but fear is still the master over greed just for the moment.
Sainsbury are expected to bring H1 profits of around £270m and revenue numbers (in previous announcements) have shown to be robust but the general confusion over the stock remains. Without the Dubai interest the company would appear to be heavily overvalued in comparison to other Supermarkets and the Divvy policy is very generous in relation to its peers. At 288p this morning the price is back at the highs since the early October fallout, when Robert Tchenguis was being forced out. 300p looks a tempting target but also an obvious barrier.
At 09.30 we will also get the latest unemployment data and this is expected to be grim. On the plus side we are seeing a change in the way markets are looking at 'bad' numbers in that they are trying to see the positive rather than the negative.
Thursday will see BT actually give some flesh to the bad trading statement of a couple of weeks ago. The company is in danger of becoming merely a trading unit of a pension fund as the liabilities run out of control. The Dividend is looking under pressure as the demands from elsewhere increase and a significant slice of the profit flows are likely to be diverted for the foreseeable future. The stock seems to be irresistibly attracted to the 115p level at the moment and the steady stream of down-grading comments from analysts are not exactly likely to attract big buyers.
Ladbrokes are likely to test the hypothesis that bookies do reasonably well in bad times. Unfortunately for the high street 'turf accountants' much of the betting is now online which is not an easy audience to either acquire or to keep. Off shore outlets (who do not have to pay the ridiculous 15pc Gaming tax) are running rings around the odds available to UK based operations. Debt, slow growth and poor results have cut into the stock in recent times so investors will be hoping for something good.
With no major news on Friday maybe this week will close on the quiet side (for once) and very soon we will be into the wailing and gnashing of teeth that is the annual 'doom fest' over the Christmas retail sales rollercoaster.
In Other News
- G20 decisions have yet to make a difference to the markets
- FTSE, DOW, Oil and Gold are up! Just the pound left alone at the bottom
- Big week for reporting. Will the markets stay up?
- A more bullish outlook...but for how long?
- School For Bankers
- Banking On Banking Disaster
- Quiet start to the day... for now
- JP Morgan: A Manga Romance
- World markets have reacted surprisingly well
- It's the end of the financial world as we know it
- A slight reprieve in the world markets
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