EPL Odds: Stats Suggest Chelsea's Start to the Season Will End in Glory
Andrew Atherley takes a look at whether Chelsea's 100% start to the EPL season after 5 games will prove to be significant come next May.
Chelsea, with five wins out of five, are setting a pace rarely seen in the EPL, yet their fast start is no guarantee that they will be able to hold off the chasing pack for the rest of the season.
Chelsea's perfect start is only the fourth time in 18 Premier League seasons that a team has started with five straight wins and backers on Betfair have been impressed, shortening them to [2.32] favorites in the Premier League Winner 2009/10 market from a pre-season [3.0], with reigning champions Manchester United next best at [3.85].
But only one of the previous three teams to win their first five games - Chelsea themselves in 2005/06, their second title-winning season under Jose Mourinho - have gone on to win the title. Arsenal, the previous season, finished second to Chelsea, while Newcastle were sixth in 1994/95.
A key factor is that Chelsea in 2005/06 had established a four-point lead at this early stage, whereas the previous season Arsenal, despite their perfect start, had only a two-point lead over eventual champions Chelsea. This season Manchester City have the opportunity to record five straight wins too - albeit an extremely difficult one, away to Manchester United - while United and Tottenham are within three points of the leaders, so Chelsea's fast start has not burned off their major rivals.
Mourinho's Chelsea were the only team to get to seven straight wins - in fact, they won their first nine - so that milestone will be more significant if they can reach it. Standing in their way are Tottenham, who visit Stamford Bridge on Sunday, and Wigan, who host Chelsea the following Saturday. For anyone who believes they can win both games - and there must be plenty - backing them for the title now at [2.32] has to be worth considering.
The long-term figures are in Chelsea's favor, if you take the view that Carlo Ancelotti has made a seamless transition from the good run enjoyed by Guus Hiddink in the closing three months of last season. In the Premier League, under Hiddink, Chelsea won 11 out of 13, taking 34 points out of a possible 39, which means that over the past 18 Premier League games (almost half a season) Chelsea have taken 49 points out of 54 - a phenomenal figure that indicates they can keep up their fast pace.
Ancelotti's much-lauded diamond formation appears to have changed Chelsea in some ways, however. Whereas eight of Hiddink's 13 league games had under 2.5 goals, four of Ancelotti's five have gone over 2.5 goals, with Chelsea scoring at least two goals in all five.
And Chelsea lead the Premier League this season for games won by two goals or more (three out of five), having achieved that margin of victory only four times in 13 games under Hiddink.
Looking to Sunday's Chelsea v Tottenham match markets, over 2.5 goals looks sure to be popular at around [1.85], especially as Tottenham have a 100% record for over 2.5 goals in their first five games. And for those looking to back Chelsea to continue their excellent home record against Tottenham (11 wins and no defeats in 17 Premier League meetings), Chelsea at -1 on the Asian handicap are worth considering at around [1.92], given their better scoring rate and margins of victory under Ancelotti.
In one important respect, Emmanuel Adebayor and Darren Bent are leading the way in the scorers' chart this season. While Wayne Rooney, [5.6] in the Top Goalscorer 09/10 market, and Jermain Defoe, available at [7.8], are top of the chart with five goals, it is Adebayor and Bent who are best at scoring the first goal.
Both Adebayor and Bent have three opening goals to their credit, from four goals scored, and that is a factor well worth noting for Betfair players in the First Goalscorer markets.
It is not out of character for Adebayor and Bent to figure highly for first goalscorer when they are on top form, and the trend looks set to continue now they are playing with teams of a similar standard as they were in their best Premier League seasons. In Adebayor's best season with Arsenal, 2007/08, when he scored 24 goals, he had a league-leading nine first goals. Even last season, when he started only 21 league games, he scored in seven of them (33%) and was first scorer four times (19%), equating to odds around [5.3] as first scorer.
And when Bent was third overall in the scoring list, with 18 goals for Charlton in 2005/06, he was the league's best at scoring first goals, with eight to his credit. Bent was around [6.3] to score first against Hull last Saturday and duly delivered, at good odds too considering his average at his best for Charlton made him around a [4.5] chance to score first.
While Adebayor, [13.0] in the Top Goalscorer 09/10 market, will have his chance compromised by his looming ban, Bent could give backers a good run for their money at [23.0]. Bent is [6.6] third favorite in the Top English Goalscorer market, behind Rooney at [2.26] and Defoe at [4.3].
In Other News
- EPL Bets Does next Villa boss really need experience?
- Soccer Betting Why Tevez & Bent are real deal in EPL
- Soccer Multiple Bets Back a trio of away wins in Carling Cup
- EPL Odds Are Stoke & West Ham relegation contenders?
- EPL Betting Close contest looms for City & Liverpool
- EPL Bets Back an Everton draw & Blackpool to grab a goal
- EPL Odds United and Chelsea set for easy wins
- EPL Tips Minnows Blackpool not relegation certs
- EPL Betting Hernandez can become hero at United
- EPL Preview Can Magpies pick United's pocket?
- EPL Bets Ramires can rule the roost at the Bridge
- EPL Bets Can Liverpool start season in style at home?
- EPL Predictions Why Newcastle should expect EPL relegation
- Soccer Betting EPL betting: Who's heading for relegation?
- EPL Tips Manchester United's Mexican gem
Categories
Popular Tags
Latest Videos
Recent Stories
- US Open Daily Tips Day Five: Murray on easy street
- College Football Preview Trojans start post-Pete era in paradise
- CFB Preview Big East travels West to kick off season
- PGA Tour Betting Three Against the Field at the Deutsche Bank Championship
- Ryder Cup Betting Three betting principles for Celtic Manor





