23 Oct 2009

EPL Predictions: Finding Value With Liverpool And Manchester United

Charlotte Cook takes a look at the soccer odds and previews this weekend's clash between the two teams that battled it out for the EPL title last season: Liverpool and Manchester United.

A match of this intensity, with this history, and containing the players that will be lining up to face each other on Sunday, needs no real build-up. When it comes to clashes in the EPL, they don't come bigger than this one. If, however, anyone was left in any doubt as to how significant this game can be over the course of a typical season, they need look no further than the circumstances surrounding this clash.

Intense managerial pressure is one such circumstance. Liverpool manager, Rafa Benitez, is, in the eyes of the fans and the media if not the top dogs at the club, living on the edge. Put simply, if they lose this clash against their fierce rivals, Liverpool will be firmly able to record their worst run of form for over half a century in the history books. It would leave them ten points behind United in the EPL table, and it would leave Benitez a very worried man indeed.

His side have looked far from the team that gave United a real run for their money last season, sitting at the top of the table for large parts of the season and refusing to give Sir Alex Ferguson a quiet night's sleep until very late in the campaign. The departure of Xabi Alonso has been the focus point for explanations for their loss of form, whilst injuries to Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres have left gaping holes in the first team that have not been filled adequately by Liverpool's squad players.

A shock defeat against Sunderland, courtesy of a freak goal influenced by the interception of an inflatable beach ball, and a late defeat in Europe in midweek will have sucked the confidence from this side, who will welcome a United side fresh off the back of victory in the Champions League and a gritty win over Bolton last weekend in the EPL.

Manchester United may have to travel to Liverpool without Wayne Rooney, who faces a struggle to be fit for Sunday's clash. Rooney, one of those rare players capable of altering the course of a game in a split second, will be missed up front for the visitors but their recent record at Anfield cannot be overlooked. They've won on five out of their last seven league trips to Anfield, drawing on one other occasion.

The odds for the game reflect this record, with United available to back at [2.6] and Liverpool out at [3.1]. Last season (when Liverpool did the double over their rivals) aside, going with historical form and backing United in this clash offers great value. Both sides' defences are looking less than solid but, without Rooney and potentially with Liverpool missing one or both of Gerrard and Torres, backing the Under in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market could be a wise move at odds of [1.79].

As with clashes of this type in the EPL, there is brilliant value to be found in the Correct Score Market. Involvement in this market is risky but can add an extra level of excitement to the clash. United to win 1-0 is on at [8.8], with 2-0 available at [14.5].