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Chelsea v Birmingham

Chelsea are clearly a side going well at present, but Birmingham are the EPL's form team as they are the only side in the league not to have lost a single game in their last ten games, securing 22 points in the process, scoring 13 goals and conceding just seven times. They are overpriced to win at Stamford Bridge at the time of writing, although the draw is by far a better bet in my opinion than a Birmingham victory. But how should we view this game in terms of an under or over 2.5 goals bet?

Two seasons ago, Alex McLeish's side managed to score twice against Chelsea at the Bridge, but Chelsea got three. Prior to that game this fixture had seen three consecutive under 2.5 goal encounters, and Birmingham have never managed to win at the Bridge in six attempts, although they have drawn twice.

Birmingham's unbeaten streak in the league dates back to 1st November and it now numbers 15 matches in all competitions and includes draws against four of the league's top six clubs in Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City. However, all but one of those was played at St Andrews. This will undoubtedly be more difficult as Chelsea are also in form, creating and scoring goals aplenty, especially at Stamford Bridge.

Birmingham's success has been down to their collective work rate and the fact they have played with the same starting eleven week in, week out. Each player knows his job and they are very difficult to break down. However, although they are unbeaten, they are not scoring goals or actually creating that many chances. Two goals against Everton on Saturday in the FA Cup came from just three shots on target (SOTs) and they also had just three shots off target (SOFFs).

In their last three league games Birmingham managed just five SOTs against Stoke, four SOTs against Chelsea and one against Everton. Equally interesting is that they have conceded just 13 goals on their travels all season; only Chelsea and Aston Villa have better records.

Next weekend Birmingham are at home to Spurs while Chelsea travel to Burnley, so both sides will probably play their strongest possible team on Wednesday night.

Recommendation: It will be a huge surprise to me if Birmingham manage to score twice and, although they could get one, I would rather be on them not scoring at all. They will be intent on defending and keeping that long unbeaten run going. That will also make it more difficult for Chelsea to score too, so the call must be a small bet on the under 2.5 goal option. However, given Chelsea's confidence at present, a small saver is suggested on the 3-0 too.

2pts under 2.5 goals @ 2.3 (+130)
0.25pt 3-0 Chelsea @ 8.4 (+740)

Everton v Sunderland

Sunderland have the fifth worst defensive record when playing away from home, having conceded 25 goals in just 11 EPL games (in that time they have scored just 12 times). They have only won once on the road all season.

Everton meanwhile have been performing well, getting results, and scoring goals recently. They may have lost in the FA Cup at the weekend but prior to that, their record had been very good. With players returning to fitness they have been scoring more goals. 15 goals in their last ten games does not seem impressive, but they have only lost three times, drawing five matches.

Everton have scored two goals in three of their last four Goodison Park EPL games while Sunderland have scored seven goals in their last three away games. However, having been beaten 7-2 last time by Chelsea, you can rest assured that Steve Bruce's side will have been practicing defensive drills all week and I believe that keeping a clean sheet will be Bruce's number one priority. Therefore, a small play on the unders is the call, although a saver on Everton winning 2-1 is also suggested.

Recommendation:
1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 (-144)
0.15pt 2-1 Everton @ 9.4 (+840)