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First things first. Let's tie up the loose ends of some betting business. Back on September 16, we tipped Lyon to win Group F at [2.80] - so if you followed our advice, you stand an excellent chance of netting yourself a profit as the group phase ends this week. Since only a Bayern win or high-scoring draw (2-2 or bigger) at Stade de Gerland can prevent France's foremost club claiming top spot in the pool, you can virtually guarantee earning yourself some moolah if you dutch on a German victory at [3.05] and a 2-2 draw at [15.5] - as long as you followed the outright recommendation three months ago.

Goals on the cards

Back to the game - and, though I won't back Lyon, I'm not touching Bayern, either. The Bavarians' 2-1 win over Hoffenheim on Friday night was not enough to convince me they can claim all three points in France, although confidence among Jurgen Klinsmann's players will be higher as a result of having joined the side they beat on top of the Bundesliga.

Lyon's 2-1 Nantes setback was their third loss in 17 league games, highlighting the defensive inconsistency that has plagued them all season. Lyon's 'goals against' column runs in waves and troughs - they kept four clean sheets in their opening four games of the campaign before conceding 14 in their next eight (1.75 goals a game). They then kept five clean sheets in a row before leaking eight goals in their last six (1.33 goals a game). I expect them to concede at least once against Bayern, particularly since their Achilles heel is dealing with crosses in the air and the Germans arrive with two of the best headers of the ball in the world in Luca Toni and Miroslav Klose.

Lyon (who are [2.68] to get their second home win of the group stages) will be confident of getting on the scoresheet, however - not only because they're more free-scoring than in other seasons but also because Bayern have conceded more than a goal a game during 2008-09, and all but seven of their 21 matches have featured over 2.5 goals. I'm shocked over 2.5 goals is [2.12] - snap it up while you can.

Eternal ending

The most important game for French clubs this week takes place at Roma's Stadio Olimpico, where Bordeaux ([6.2]) need to beat their hosts to progress to the knock-out stages (Tuesday. 7.45pm). Laurent Blanc's visitors have done superbly to haul themselves back into contention after losing their first two group matches - they've taken seven points from their last three matches, which is more than Roma (6), Chelsea (4) and CFR Cluj (0) - but I fear this trip to the Eternal City will end their Champions League campaign.

Roma - [1.71] - are wily, experienced European opponents and while I wouldn't write off les Girondins' chances of earning a spirited stalemate (the draw's available at [3.85]), a victory looks beyond the visitors. The winner-takes-all scenario may inspire a high-scoring encounter, but I think Roma are more likely to ensure a cat-and-mouse opening - so this is one game I'll be leaving alone.

Passion and overs

Instead I'll focus on Marseille v Atletico Madrid (Tuesday, 7.45pm), a highly-charged encounter for all the wrong reasons. Marseille fan Santos Mirasierra was jailed for three-and-a-half years last week as a result of violent incidents that took place at Atletico's Vicente Calderon stadium when Atletico beat Marseille 2-1 in the first meeting between the sides in the competition on October 1. The jail term has outraged some sections of the Marseille supporters, and the saga is bound to create extraordinary passion among a 60,000 crowd at the Velodrome.

L'OM's players rarely need an excuse to attack furiously these days - they are France's top scorers, with 41 goals in 25 games in all competitions (1.64 goals per game}, but their defending lacks similar quality, evidenced by a record of three clean sheets in 16 matches. Eleven of Marseille's 12 home games have had over 2.5 goals - and, when you consider Atletico have scored 47 goals in 23 games (2.04 goals per game) but conceded more than a goal a game as well, it's clear we're dealing with two teams who are far more accomplished at attacking than defending.

Given the stats, it's startling to find over 2.5 goals as the outsider of two - overs is [2], while under 2.5 goals is [1.93]. It's not as if nothing is at stake, either: in order to retain top spot, Atletico, who are [3.8] to take all three points, need to do at least as well at Marseille as Liverpool do away to PSV, while Marseille, a short [2.06] to win on the night, are playing for a Uefa Cup berth.

That ill-fated October meeting between the sides ended in a 2-1 Atletico win, and it would be no surprise to see at least as many goals again. The price on overs looks far too big - so get on before it goes.

Recommended bets:
Lyon v Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals [2.12]
Marseille v Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals [2]

Already recommended:
Lyon to win Group [2.80] (September 16)

* James Eastham has made 8.14pts profit (minus 5% commission) from staking 43.5pts (18.7% ROI) on French clubs in all competitions this season.