Politics / Ari Last / 27 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Can the Democrats win Virginia for the first time since 1964? Amazingly, it's looking that way. Ari Last takes a look at the situation...

The last time Virginia voted for a Democrat was when it played its part in the extraordinary landslide result which saw Lyndon Johnson elected in 1964. Johnson, who took hold of the reins after the hugely popular JFK was assassinated, won in every state bar six and although a victory of such epic proportions is unlikely to happen this time around, if you believe the polls, another magnificent victory is on the way for the Democrats. And having the capabilities able to swing a state like Virginia perhaps tells us why such dramatic change is upon us.

The strides made by the Democratic party in Virginia in recent years is unquestionable. Recent victories for the party in the State Senate are testament to that fact and with a growing population of wealthy, successful liberal thinkers fans in the North of the state, it has come as no surprise that Virginia looks likely to vote blue this time around.

As is the case when talking about most of the United States, the makeup of Virginia's varied demographic will prove key. One in five of the state's residents are black, giving Barack Obama a strong base to begin with. Yet it is Obama's charisma and enterprise which is winning over fans in a part of the world well known for its forward thinking and ambitious approach to business and culture.

With a total of 17 Fortune 500 companies, Virginia is at the forefront of commercial development in the United States and has the highest concentration of technology workers anywhere in the country. Virginia is clearly not adverse to change, in fact it seems to thrive upon it. The promise of widespread and deep rooted political change endlessly proclaimed by Barack Obama may be too hard to resist.

John McCain has been accused of taking this usually reliable Republican stronghold for granted. Since winning his inter-party battle with Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama and his wife have visited the "Commonwealth" on 12 occasions, McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin have shown their faces only once.

On the TV screens, the radios and in the newspapers the evidence of a more concerted effort on Obama's part is abundantly clear. Whether it's due to a lack of funds or misguided complacency, McCain actions, or lack of action, regarding the "Old Dominion" is bound to receive major criticism from friend's foes alike should the Republicans lose their grip on a state that has been theirs for decades.

While polls across the States are indicating a tight race, Betfair traders are not for the first time proving to be that little bit bolder. If you trust the predictions of the Betfair markets, and you should, a Democratic win in Virginia seems to be almost a certainty with the best available odds to back them being an extremely short [1.2].

Any attempt from McCain to rescue the State now may well be a case of too little too late, however a last minute campaigning surge from the Republicans is being widely predicted, and that may well ensure that their current price of [5.5] may look like good value come Election Day.