Politics / Editor / 28 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Political correctness has impacted upon all our lives. Chairmen are now the less authoritative-sounding chairpeople, children can't play conkers without donning armour, and, because of the EU, our bananas no longer bend. Now it is insidiously creeping into the political lexicon too, says Eliot Pollak...

Take the 'Bradley Effect'; merely a polite way of saying 'those Yanks are a racist bunch but won't admit it in public.'

The 'Bradley Effect' is surprisingly not named after the chirpy former S-Club 7 member who we were offered to "watch swing" in the band's much under-rated tune, 'S Club Party,' but in fact stems from the less aesthetically-pleasing contest to be Governor of California back in 1982. The late Tom Bradley was up against the Republican George Deukmjian, and polling up until the day of the vote indicated a Bradley victory. So conclusive were the polls, early editions of newspapers the day after the vote declared Bradley victorious. Alas, Mr Bradley lost. So what went wrong?

Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that previously undecided voters had voted for Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers. In other words, when facing another human being enquiring as to which way they would vote, Californians acted all liberal and inclusive. However, in the privacy of their own ballot box, the historic racial enmity prevalent in the States, particularly in the South, kicked in, and a verbal vote for the black man morphed into a cross next to the white man's name. Applying this to the 2008 Presidential Election, the Obama vote may be artificially inflated.

1982 wasn't a one-off either. The 1983 race in Chicago featured black candidate Harold Washington running against white candidate Bernard Epton. More so than the Bradley race the year before, the Washington-Epton match-up evinced strong and overt racial overtones throughout the campaign. Two polls conducted approximately two weeks before the election showed Washington with a 14-point lead in the race. A third conducted just three days before the election confirmed Washington continuing to hold a lead of 14 points. But in the election's final results, Washington won by less than four points

Interestingly, a differing version of the 'Bradley Effect' is alleged to have come into play four years ago, when George Bush saw off John Kerry. Rather than feel the need to publicly profess support for the black guy, in this case Americans were instead ashamed of admitting to voting for such an idiot and hence told pollsters their intentions were to back Kerry. However, those voters ultimately plumped for Dubya. Well done everyone involved in that decision.

Desperate Republicans have of late been seen clutching at more straws than a randy farmer taking advantage of the milkmaid during work hours. Senior commentators in august Republican organs such as the New York Sun and the New Republic have been speculating that a 2008 reprise of the Bradley Effect could demolish Obama's ostensibly formidable poll lead, currently at 79% according to Betfair Predicts. (Incidentally, this is also a strong argument in favour of prediction markets, rather than traditional opinion polls. People are less likely to lie when a) there is money at stake and b) there isn't a human being putting the question directly to them.)

If this were to be correct, John Mcain represents magnificent value in the race for the White House. Simply slash anything up to 5% off the polls and the race is afoot. The overwhelmingly white Ohio (86% according to a 2005 census) suddenly becomes a Republican victory once more. The similarly monochrome Arizona and its ten electoral votes becomes a cert. And all this before we start discussing the swing states of Florida and North Carolina.

Some analysts have even posited the idea of a 'Bradley Effect' in reverse this year. Such is the historical and cultural pressure on African-Americans to share in the fulfilment of the Obama dream, many black Republicans will publicly profess to support Obama, but may in fact, stick with their party.

Lovely theories, but punters need to know how likely all this is to happen. The problem with any question regarding hidden intentions is that, by their very nature, they are hidden, ergo effectively impossible to prove. How accurate talk of the Bradley Effect is may largely determine the outcome of the 2008 election. Either way, it says a great deal about the Republican campaign, that after a year of huffing and puffing, it is the colour of their opponent's skin that now presents their only opportunity for a surprise victory.