Politics / Ari Last / 23 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Surely the Republicans can't lose North Dakota... Can they?

North Dakota's voting trends have almost been as steady as its population levels. The fact that the State's population has not increased since the 1920's could be reflected in the fact that since 1936 they've only failed to vote Republican once , all the way back in 1964 - perhaps a lack of new inhabitants brings with it a lack of new political culture, ideas and beliefs.

This is something that will suit the Republicans down to the ground with North Dakota and its three electoral votes looking more likely than not to go in favour of Senator McCain.

John McCain's persona throughout the campaign has been experienced strong and steady. Next to Barack Obama, McCain has, according to some, looked dull and mundane and while thriving in a place where the State Beverage is Milk is hardly going to enhance his reputation amongst progressive political "Thrill-Seekers", any vote at the moment is a welcome one.

In fact John McCain would be wise to take a trip to North Dakota on Election Day - the State has the most amount of churches per capita and with the way things are shaping up, all Republicans could do with murmuring a prayer right now. According to most commentators Barack Obama is sweeping to victory and with States such as North Dakota slipping into "Toss up" territory it is no wonder that such bold predictions are being made.

The Republicans would like to think that the North Dakota vote is as safe as houses although with the U.S. Real Estate market in utter collapse they'd be hoping it's far steadier then that.
In truth is that it isn't. Years of boom and Republican confidence in North Dakota have slowly been eroded away, yet unlike the housing market the Republican vote should just about survive in the "Peace Garden State".

In 2004 George Bush won 63% of the vote on his way to the White House although support in the State is now said to be closer to 40%. Fortunately for Senator McCain after initially making moves in the North Dakota and Montana region, the Obama camp decided to focus its attention elsewhere which makes it all the more likely that North Dakota's political status quo will remain intact.

Betfair punters are well aware of this with the Republicans clear favourites in the market place. They can be backed at [1.45] while one who fancies taking a gamble on a stunning Democratic victory could pick up odds of [2.64].

FACTS:

Population - 650,000 (48th in USA)

Land Area - 70,762 sq mi (19th in USA)

Capital - Bismark

Governor - John Hoeven (Rep)

Admission To The Union - November 2nd 1889

Famous Attraction - World's tallest Buffalo Statue