Politics / Chicken Dinner / 23 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Short of an unexpected and catastrophic event between now and election day, John McCain is as good as finished. Chicken Dinner take a look at the current state of play...

Just two weeks to go before election day now, and after a merciless multi-million dollar bombardment of campaign messages, those few Americans still dithering are probably going to remain undecided until long after this election is settled. After an electoral process that has been like no other, given the interminable Democratic selection efforts and the volatility of the presidential race, the picture seems to have coalesced definitively into a win for Obama. Or as Charlie Cook puts it in his National Journal blog, "One of the most unsettling aspects of this campaign is that for an election cycle so turbulent, with so many surprising twists and turns, over the last few days it suddenly has had the feel of concrete setting."

As stability has been such a rare ingredient that its appearance at this late stage of the race is scaring people, does that mean there's still another shock to endure? Probably not. According to Cook, "it's only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn't that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one." And while there have been some astonishing comebacks in American general elections, no trailing candidate has ever bounced back from so far behind and at such a late stage. McCain's goose, it would seem, is finally ready to eat.

It seems that what really did for McCain was the catastrophic turn taken by the economy in the last few weeks, making it impossible in many voters' minds to endorse the party they blame for the chaos. So only an event of even greater magnitude than the economic collapse could therefore raise McCain back above Obama with so little time left on the clock. Such events do happen, but rarely emerge from nowhere in the space of a few days. The likelihood of a second Pearl Harbor within the next week or so is mercifully slim.

So while McCain is reduced to prayer and sorcery, Obama, according to the Politico blog "need only keep this election on track -- hold big rallies in key states; roll out any remaining endorsements, such as Colin Powell's; flood the airwaves with ads; and mobilize young people to show up at the polls." There's not much there that's beyond his capabilities.

Just in case, though, Obama has this week spent time in Florida, the state that decided the outcome of the 2000 election by little more than 500 votes and is going to be pivotal again. Not only has he wheeled out his arch-rival Hillary Clinton, whose presence really counts for something in the Sunshine State, but his campaign team is making sure there'll be no repeat of the nightmare from eight years ago.

According to the Times, "It has assembled 5,000 lawyers, law students and paralegals. On election day they will patrol nearly every precinct to make sure that ballots are available, voting machines are working and electoral rolls are correct. Ready to head to court and file snap lawsuits are scores of "legal Swat teams"." Yikes.

When the dust has settled, this obsessive level of organization on the ground may prove to have been decisive in winning this race for Obama. Until the votes are counted on November 4, however, the Democrats will just have to live with the fear that the Republicans have a last ingenious trick up their sleeves, that the polls have got it wrong, or that it has all just been a dream. Or as political pundit Andrew Sullivan writes, also in the Times, "To talk to Democrats these days is to witness a strange mix of enormous anticipated relief and near nervous collapse."

On Betfair, Barack Obama is [1.15] to win, John McCain [7.8].