Politics / Editor / 05 November 2008 / Leave a comment

The highs and lows of Betfair's Next President market
BARACK Obama will be the next President of the United States of America - a result correctly predicted by Betfair customers back in February following the Super Tuesday primaries.

Betfair's betting markets have so far traded a total of £36m ($57m) over the course of the election campaign. They also foresaw Obama's victories in most of the key swing states on polling day - only Missouri appears to have failed to fall to the Democrats - as Republican candidate John McCain endured a torrid night.

Obama is already being given a 60% chance on Betfair of being elected for a second term in 2012.

This is how Barack Obama's fortunes changed on Betfair...

A: Obama wins in Iowa, propelling him into the lead for the Democratic nomination. (Jan 3rd) % chance: 47% Barack Obama, 15% John McCain
B: The lead is short-lived as Hillary Clinton pulls off a shock win in New Hampshire. (Jan 8th) % chance: 25% Barack Obama, 15% John McCain
C: John McCain secures the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday on 5th February. (5th Feb) % chance: 30% Barack Obama, 33% John McCain
D: Barack Obama finally looks to have secured his party's nomination following a primary win in North Carolina. (2nd May) % chance: 56% Barack Obama, 35% John McCain
E: The 'Palin Bounce' starts a period of recovery for the McCain campaign. (4th Sept) % chance: 62% Barack Obama, 38% John McCain
F: This rise did not last long and from the day investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt the gap got ever wider. (15th Sept) % chance: 55% Barack Obama, 45% John McCain

• Total amount traded on all Betfair markets during this election campaign (as at 0600 GMT, Weds 5th Nov 2008) - £36m ($57m)
• Betting Highs & Lows:
o Obama traded at a high of 13-2 for small money.
o McCain traded at a low of 6-5 (over £100k was matched at 5-4 or less).

For live information from all markets visit www.betfairpredicts.com