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Many people were hoping that a superstar would emerge from the Kentucky Derby but it's very likely that the winner of the Derby, Mine That Bird, just got lucky. Mine That Bird started his career in the claiming ranks and had little to show for himself heading into the big race.

His best Beyer speed figure until the Derby was 81, almost 15 points (or 3 seconds) slower than most of the other contenders. His win can be chalked up as a lucky series of events that included a rail saving trip which opened up for him in the stretch (a rarity at the Derby), a very sloppy surface he handled well, and scratches of the 2 obvious choices.

Furthermore, by spotting the field 20 lengths he was able to stay out of trouble while the other horses battled it out getting battered and bruised. If his jockey tries to employ a similar style in the Preakness it's almost certain that Mine That Bird will finish well-beaten since few if any horses have won from that far back in the history of the race.

It's notable that Calvin Borel, who rode the horse, is willing to sacrifice an opportunity for a Triple Crown and has opted to ride Rachel Alexandra instead. That should speak volumes.

The morning line favourite for the race is Rachel Alexandra at 8/5 odds. Don't be surprised if she goes off at less than even money by post time. While it's normal to see fillies running against the colts in Europe, in North America it's still the exception rather than the rule. For the most part, fillies try to race against their own sex.

Of course, there have been exceptions to this rule. In 1915 Regret became the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby while Genuine Risk (1980) and Winning Colors (1988) duplicated that feat. No filly ever won the Preakness.

The reason Rachel Alexandra is the logical favourite is simple: there is little to beat in this race. PioneeroftheNile, Musket Man and Papa Clem proved in the Derby that they are decent horses but there was certainly nothing to indicate they were anything special while Friesan Fire and General Quarters put in disappointing runs.

It was noted that Friesan Fire had the trip from hell in the Kentucky Derby but even still it is almost unheard of for a horse to run that poorly in the Derby and come back with a good race in the Preakness. Of the horses that didn't run in the Derby only Big Drama appears to be a horse worthy of racing in the Preakness. Any of the other newcomers would be as shocking a victory as Mine That Bird was in the Derby.

But Rachel Alexandra also appears to be just that good. The horse started out slowly in her career but looked like something special in her last race of 2008, a 5 length victory in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes.

Rachel resumed her career in February of this year and posted her first 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a stakes race at Oaklawn Park. She then posted easy wins in the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy Stakes and finally the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks where she won by over 20 lengths in 1:48 4/5 seconds earning her a 108 Beyer figure.

For anyone who saw the race it was evident she just breezed home and with any pressure could have recorded a Beyer figure in the 115-120 range. There's no question the field of horses in that race was very poor but the domination can't be overlooked. And, more importantly, while the other horses in the Preakness except Mine That Bird seem to have peaked, Rachel Alexandra is clearly improving with every start.

In fact, many in the paddocks are suggesting that Rachel Alexandra may be the best 3 year old filly since Go For Wand. Larry Jones, the trainer of Friesan Fire, went one step further and suggested she may be the best horse since Ruffian (the superstar filly of the early 1970s who was put down after breaking a leg in a match race against Foolish Pleasure).

"Only the Lord knows how good Rachel Alexandra is," Jones told a Baltimore newspaper. "If I've got any chance to beat her it will have to be with a boy horse because I've tried all my girls and they couldn't get close."

Of course for those willing to take a shot at beating Rachel Alexandra, the odds will be juicy on the rest of the field. And, if Rachel does get into a speed duel with Big Drama it certainly isn't impossible that Mine That Bird could pull off a second upset in a row.

There is only one thing for certain as always. The best odds on whichever horse wins the race will be available at Betfair.