Boxing Betting: Khan set for bruiser with Kotelnik
British Boxing has suffered a fairly demoralising summer to date and is certainly in need of a boost. Alex Steedman ponders whether Amir Khan could be the man to restore some glory.
With Ricky Hatton flattened and embarrassed by Manny Pacquiao, David Haye's superfight with Vladimir Klitschko cancelled and most damagingly, ITV and Setanta coverage lost, British boxing has been winded. Step forward Amir Khan.
Saturday's WBA Title challenge against Andreas Kotelnik is an unexpectedly early opportunity at this level for the Bolton Olympian. But at just 22, is he ready for it? And moving up in weight, is Khan biting off more than he can chew?
Let us say straight off the bat that Khan is on good terms with pressure, so the occasion will not bother him. Nor will a return to the Men Arena where he was hammered in devastating fashion by Breidis Prescott last summer. Those demons were exorcised with a career high performance against the Mexican legend Marco Antonio Barrera back at the same venue in March. And there were signs of improvement, tactically, with a more mature, 'professional' approach from Khan under the guidance of the excellent Freddie Roach.
Quite what Khan achieved in overcoming a small man in his mid 30's is debatable but the head clash stoppage probably denied the Brit a legitimate KO of a classy fighter. And to his undoubted speed, Khan applied more patient tactics with some much needed attention to defence. I expect much the same approach against Kotelnik with speedy, point scoring forays the method and ironically, Khan returning somewhat to his amateur style as a means to success. Question is, will that be good enough and what happens when Kotelnik fights back?
Like Khan, Kotelnik was a decorated amateur and has proved a solid if unspectacular pro. He looked short of top class back in 2007 but a gimme title shot against the diminutive Welshman Gareth Rees (a light weight like Khan) provided Kotelnik with a platform to world level. He has taken advantage of that with two defences of his WBA title since, both won by decision.
The last of those was a give and take scrap with Argentinian tough nut Marcos Maidana in February, a result that was disputedly close but looks good now. Maidana made the talented American Victor Ortiz quit in an up and down thriller recently and I suspect he (and perhaps Ortiz) would give Khan serious problems. So Kotelnik has the pedigree, form and, significantly, the mental strength to deal with Khan.
There is a little added spice between the two fighters now with Khan accusing the Ukranian of running scared when the fight was postponed past the original late June date. The truth is Kotelnik snapped one tooth and broke another in sparring and I get the impression Khan doesn't really rate the champion. Already he is talking of what winning this fight will do for his career. That could be a big mistake, psychologically, for this ought to be a stern test.
In truth, Khan is the quicker and more talented fighter; one of those factors is usually enough. But Kotelnik is wily, experienced and the naturally bigger man. He gave Junior Witter an argument when they met four years ago and while not star quality, Kotelnik is a genuine top 10 fighter. Khan is not in that league yet but the experience of sparring Manny Pacquiao is helping him on the way and trainer Freddy Roach talks of the Brit in glowing terms.
Roach will set out a plan of hit and move and with Kotelnik never having been dropped or stopped, Khan can surely only win on points barring an over-eager refereeing stoppage. My concern about the likely tactics is Khan's ability (or lack of) to fight on the back foot. He might not have to but I can see him hitting Kotelnik's high held guard and taking counters on the way in and being pressurised on the way out. While the champion's record of just two KO's in his last 15 fights underlines the lack of a concussive punch, he does hit sharply and is very accurate, particularly up close and in range. And If Khan's is indeed a little fragile when hit, Kotelnik has the tools to expose him.
This fight is certainly in the balance and while I think it is one which Khan can win, I also believe Kotelnik should be favourite. At the prices, Kotelnik is the bet.
'Too much too young' sang The Specials, so it might be for the Khan who would be king.
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