Horse Racing / Wayne Bailey / 03 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Wayne Bailey's October trainers showed a profit of £975 to £10 stakes. Here he profiles the men who have traditionally flourished in November...

With Halloween out of the way, it's time to start the long run-in to Christmas time. I love Christmas as much as anyone, but not in early November! I refuse to get into festive mode until at least December, but it's hard to ignore the retailers baying for our money as soon as October comes to a close. Make sure you keep a few quid separate from the shopping money however, for the trainers who traditionally do well at this time of year.

Trainers are creatures of habit, and following those habits can often pay its way. Following particular trainers at certain times of the year has made me some nice profits in the past, and October was no exception.

In a previous article, I advised following Keith Goldsworthy and Marco Botti. Combined, they had eight winners from 51 bets, and had you stuck a tenner on each, your profit would have been £975.30 to Betfair SP. 19 of their horses were placed, but I was backing in the win markets only.

I must admit, October was an exceptional month, and the profit figures are higher than normal. Still, if I can do half as well in November, I'll be a happy man. A word of caution to those readers who may still be using the bookies: The October profit to traditional SP was only £577.50 to £10 stakes; a marked difference to that of Betfair SP. If you are not using the exchanges, wake up and smell the coffee. I don't need to apologise for giving Betfair a plug here - the figures speak for themselves.

Anyway, now that we've October out of the way, it's time to move on to the trainers to note for November. When selecting trainers to note, I follow a number of steps. Firstly, (and most importantly) I check for trainers who show a consistent strike rate in the given month, over a number of years. Consistency is key. I then drop those who don't show regular profit to go along with that strike rate. Often, the major yards will get dropped as they tend to be over-backed, and it's difficult to make money there. The last step is often the hardest, and that involves looking at the current horses in training in the yard, and trying to decide if they are likely to keep the trends going.

Like all types of betting, there is risk involved. All trainers are prone to bad spells now and then, which could end up costing you money - so the usual warnings apply. However, I'm confident enough in the below trainers to put my own money down and, once again, I'll report back at the end of the month with a profit/loss update:

T.G. Mills

Terry Mills doesn't send out too many horses at this time of the year, but of those that do run, over half are placed, with 30% actually winning. Had you placed £10 on each, you'd be £235 better off today.

Jim Best

Along with his brother Tom, Jim Best has been doing quite well in recent times, and has had plenty of winners since taking out a trainers' licence a number of years ago. In November, he shows a 27% strike rate, and a profit of £237.50 to £10 stakes.

V R A Dartnall

Victor Dartnall took out a licence ten years ago and since then, he's been a model of consistency with his win rate rarely dropping below the 20% mark. At this time of the year, he shows a 27% strike-rate and a profit of £457 to £10 stakes.

Charles O' Brien

Keep an eye on the Irish racing for these selections. There' won't be too many I'd suspect, but O'Brien has a win rate of around 25% at this time of the year, and shows a small profit if blindly backed.

John E Kiely

A horse form Kiely's yard broke my heart on Sunday, and I don't think I'm quite over it just yet! I backed Coast, which went off at [124.0] on Betfair and ended up getting beaten by a neck. Amazingly, the traditional SP was just [26.0]. Despite my disappointment after that race, I still have faith in the yard at this time of the year, and hope he can fire a few home this month.

* All data is from 2003 onwards

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