Horse Racing / Wayne Bailey / 21 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Wayne Bailey has some interesting findings on that often forgotten variable - the value of the race.

On a train journey some years back, I got chatting to an Irish trainer that is well known for 'landing a gamble'. I'd better not mention any names, but I was anxious to see if he'd let me in on a few secrets that might make my wallet just a little fatter!

Unfortunately, he was keeping his cards close to his chest, but he did reveal one nugget of information which I was reminded of when I read an interview with that trainer in a newspaper recently.

I had asked him how he manages to find the right horses for the right races so often, and he stated that he liked to find "weak" races for horses which he knew had ability, but have yet shown their true potential. I asked how he identified such races and he said it was "quite simple". He told me that one of the first things he does when deciding where his horses should be entered is check the prize money for the race, and in particular, he notes the races with lower prizes. "Far too many trainers and owners are over-optimistic" he told me, "and a bit of realism can pay off". Find the right jockey, and the race is often his.

Now, if I listened to every word I hear from a stable, I'd be a very poor man today. I also don't believe it's as simple as he makes out, but he did give me an idea to test out, and it turns out that there may be substance to his statement.

Using prize money as the key variable, I decided to check out which trainer/jockey combinations prove consistently profitable (2006 to the present). Since the Flat season is winding down soon, I decided to only look at National Hunt and All Weather for now.

Interestingly, nearly all of the profitable and consistent combinations were at the lower end of the prize money scale, giving some credibility to the theory.

So basically, it's a matter of the trainer finding the right race, a decent horse - and a reliable jockey. Here's who I've noted:

National Hunt

Trainer: Thorpe, Mrs A M
Jockey: Johnston, Richard
Race value: £8,000 or less
Results: 26 wins from 113 bets (23.01%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £588.90. Place strike rate: 49.56%

* * *

Trainer: Nicholls, P
Jockey: Walsh, R
Race value: £13,001 to £25,000
Results: 28 wins from 90 bets (31.11%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £332.80. Place strike rate: 52.20%

* * *

Trainer: Twiston-Davies, N
Jockey: England, David or Brennan, Paddy
Race value: £8,000 or less
Results: 109 wins from 492 bets (22.15%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £833.70. Place http://betting.app.betfair/mt-static/images/formatting-icons/bold.gifstrike rate: 46.14%

All-Weather

Trainer: Brittain, M
Jockey: Lawson, Mark
Race value: Less than £4,000
Results: 10 wins from 48 bets (20.83%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £249.30. Place strike rate: 37.50%

* * *

Trainer: Johnston, M
Jockey: Fanning, Joe
Race value: Less than £4,000
Results: 42 wins from 144 bets (29.17%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £606.90. Place strike rate: 52.78%

* * *

Trainer: Haggas, WJ
Jockey: Jones, Liam
Race value: Less than £4,000
Results: 17 wins from 61 bets (27.87%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £175. Place strike rate: 50.82%

* * *

Trainer: Moore, GL
Jockey: Baker, George
Race value: Less than £4,000
Results: 40 wins from 141 bets (28.37%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £699.40. Place strike rate: 49.65%

* * *

Trainer: Hollinshead, R
Jockey: Turner, Hayley
Race value: Less than £4,000
Results: 7 wins from 31 bets (22.58%). Win Profit to £10 stakes: £175. Place strike rate: 35.48%

* * *

I'm not suggesting that you use the above as some sort of system, but it should certainly help identify some reasonable betting prospects throughout the season, and with a bit of selectivity, it may well pay off. I'll report back in a few months with a profit/loss progress, but in the meantime I'd be interested in hearing readers' thoughts on the prize money angle.


P.S. There's one horse which falls under the above criteria which may be worth noting in the win and place market today:

3:30 Lingfield - Molnaya.