Horse Racing / Editor / 01 May 2009 / Leave a comment

In the United States the first Saturday in May brings about the most anticipated period in horse racing - the start of the Triple Crown.

While no horse has won all 3 of the Triple Crown races for over 30 years (Affirmed in 1978 was the last horse to do so) fans and owners hope that a horse will emerge to finally break the trend.

The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes may be part of the same series, but all 3 races are drastically different and the key to successful handicapping in each race is totally independent of the others. The Kentucky Derby is run at 1 1/4 miles at Churchill downs which is one of the least forgiving tracks to speed horses. While it's true that some horses have gone wire to wire to win the race (such as Go for Gin and Spend a Buck), those type of winners are few and far between. Furthermore Go for Gin's winning time was one of the slowest in recent history and the horse won on a very sloppy surface. It's very likely that had the race gone on a fast track Go for Gin would have finished far back. Generally speaking the horse that wins the Derby rates himself well, has a good post position away from the rail and stays away from traffic troubles. In fact looking at the Derbies since 2000 the commentary in the Daily Racing Form's official chart on the winners was virtually the same. The horse that won was either reserved early or rated off the pace on the outside, made a bid before the stretch and then made the main run entering the stretch for the win. Rarely does it say a horse went to the lead and held on or won from out of the clouds. Of course it has happened that a horse charged from nowhere to win such as Grindstone in 1996 and Ferdinand in 1986 but like the wire to wire winners a horse winning with that type of racing style is the exception rather than the rule.

So when handicapping the Derby it's important to eliminate horses that start from the inside (post position 1, 2 and 3). Because of the long run to the first turn and the amount of horses entered it's almost inevitable a horse from those positions will be boxed in and lack racing room throughout the race unless they have blazing speed. But as was mentioned if the horse has that type of speed he's at a disadvantage anyways. It's also important to eliminate horses that can't rate themselves. If a horse can only race on the lead or is totally devoid of speed, it's best to look elsewhere. Again in a 20 horse field it will be hard for a horse to circle the field and win from another time zone unless there is a blistering pace and a lot of contenders made their moves too early. A horse that can sit around 5th to 10th at the 1/2 mile mark no more than a dozen lengths back and has a good kick is usually the winner of the Derby. Lastly it's important to know the Jockey. Kent Desormeaux has won 3 Kentucky Derbies since 2000 and most trainers will acknowledge he just knows how to rate his horses well. Jockeys who are too timid or make their moves too early with horses will usually lose regardless if they have the best horse or not.

The Preakness at Pimlico racetrack requires a totally different strategy. At one time Pimlico was known for speed and a bias favouring inside horses which is the exact opposite of the Derby. In fact many owners with speed favouring horses would often pass up the Derby and concentrate on the Preakness even though the races are only 1/16 mile difference in length. Looking at the charts for the Preakness over the last decade the commentary is usually pretty similar for the winners of that race. The victor is usually just off the lead early and makes his move before the stretch. It's imperative that a horse is close to the lead entering the stretch at the Preakness since the length of the stretch at Pimlico is much shorter than Churchill Downs. Post position has little bearing to who will win. It's notable that many Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness, often displaying a different running style than in the Derby. In fact since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, 11 horses have won both the Derby and Preakness and failed in the Belmont Stakes. The last horse to do so of course was Big Brown last year. Many have provided reasons why the Derby winner has fared so well in the Preakness such as good form, good preparation etc. but the reason may be even simpler than that. When great horses lose the Derby they usually drop out of the Triple Crown picture and look to easier races. With the main competition gone, the field is just easier for the Derby winner to repeat against. Of course form and preparation are important too.

The key to handicapping the Preakness winner, therefore, is straight forward. If the Derby winner has a racing style that's suited to the Preakness and is the class of the field then that horse is the obvious pick. If, however, the horse just had good racing luck in the Derby and a style not suited to the Preakness such as Giacomo or Monarchos it's better to look elsewhere to a horse that is better suited to Pimlico.

The last jewel of the Triple Crown is the Belmont Stakes which is run 3 weeks after the Preakness. As mentioned 11 horses have tried for the Triple Crown since 1978 and all failed. In fact while 3 horses won the Crown in the 1970s (Secretariat in1973, Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978) the last horse prior to Secretariat to complete the feat was Citation in 1948. Much was made of the 25 year gap between Triple Crown winners when Secretariat won the Belmont in 1973 but now the void between winners is even longer. The Belmont is 1/2 mile longer than the Derby but the reason horses generally fail in the Belmont has nothing to do with the distance. In fact the charts for the Belmont show that the winner is always within striking distance throughout. One would have to go way back to find a horse that trailed early and won the Belmont. The race is all about rating properly, setting an easy tempo and making the move at the precise moment. Post position means very little and in fact the inside is usually an advantage for the Belmont Stakes. The reason horses usually fail in the Belmont after winning the first 2 races is just exhaustion. At 3 years old horses are still quite young and the Triple Crown stretch is very hard on horses. Generally speaking while the winner of the first 2 races has run very hard for over a month, a fresher horse that has geared itself for the Belmont will usually get the victory. It hasn't gone unnoticed that many of the winners of the Belmont like Da'Tara, Jazil, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Sarava etc. showed very little in their careers prior to the Belmont and usually skipped the Preakness to gear themselves for the upset in the Belmont Stakes.

Since Betfair allows bettors to wager against a horse many who lay the overwhelming favourite entering the Belmont are rewarded with a nice payoff. Last year anyone willing to bet against Big Brown in the Belmont were rewarded with a 3/1 payoff.

As for the winner of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, the race is wide open. Looking at horses that have the running style mentioned that usually wins Derbies as well as a good post position and a great jockey my money will be on Pioneer of the Nile (currently a dividend of 7.6 at Betfair) and Dunkirk (currently at a dividend of 6.2) as well as Desert Party for a longshot (currently at a dividend of 18.0). European horses don't generally fair well in the United States on dirt but last year's Breeder's Cup Classic proved that at this point in time the European horses are ahead of the game.