Horse Racing / Simon Rowlands / 22 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Betting guru Simon Rowlands expands on the a neglected realm of the horseracing punter's armoury - sectional timings.

I have had a busy week, though not a great deal of it has involved horseracing. As a result, I have yet to see the Champion Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes, nor the good jumps action at the weekend, though I am hardly giving away trade secrets to say that New Approach's win looks good on paper and Intense Focus' does not.

A long return train journey did, however, enable me to read most of Moneyball, recommended to me in a comment on last week's blog by "Stu". The book is an entertaining read, for all that I struggled with some of the baseball terminology, and it made me realise that there are some fields of sporting endeavour in which even more erroneous assumptions seem to have been made than in horseracing.

My favourite parts of Moneyball were the pages that described the efforts of amateur enthusiast Bill James to gather baseball statistics and to process them in a meaningful way at a time when the former was difficult and the latter was almost unheard of. He was soon joined by like-minded individuals, and between them they moved forward the analysis of baseball considerably.

As it happens, I undertook a similar enterprise myself involving horseracing a few months back when sending out a call to anyone interested in sharing hand-held sectional-timing information.
After a promising start, the group has dwindled to the degree that it amounts to me and my fellow betting.betfair columnist Andrew Hughes.

Our data is somewhat patchy as a result, but what we are able to gather continues to be of considerable interest and use to us. It should be remembered that most all-weather racing was covered comprehensively and very accurately by TurfTrax until recently, so it is usually possible to put sectionals into a solid and meaningful historical context.

I thought I would highlight a handful of performers that have turned in noteworthy efforts (either in a positive or a negative sense) from a sectional-timing point of view recently, which are as follows:

HALLINGDAL first went into the notebook when running very fast in the closing stages to win at Kempton in September, since when she has seemed unlucky in defeat at the same track and at Lingfield, the former encouragingly backed up by a good time. She is worthy of an official rating of about 87 on my figures so should have little trouble in winning off several pounds less (ran off 78 last time) at 7f or 1m before long.

PRINCESS INDIA sprinted from 13th of 14 to first place in the last 2f at Lingfield earlier this month, covering the sectional in not much more than 23 sec while others in the field were clocking times a second or more slower. The overall time was not especially good but the way Princess India won suggests she was value for something like three lengths more than the result, and as a result she should be highly competitive when reassessed.

ALL SPIN went too fast at Kempton earlier this month in a nursery in which the first and second were ninth and eighth at the 3f-marker in a field of 10. All Spin was second at that juncture, and even led for a while soon after, doing well enough in finishing sixth to suggest he should probably have been placed and is capable of running to a rating well into the 70s.

TEST MATCH was an eye-catcher at Lingfield this Tuesday in a race in which everything finished on the slow side and yet the time was respectable. Test Match was in the lead 2f out but caved in and ran the final quarter of a mile in nearly 26 sec, still managing to hang on to third. He can be rated up with the winner Young Dottie (who was ridden more conservatively) and is probably capable of running to a rating in the 80s.

LORD DEEVERT showed on Tuesday that it is possible to win from the front at Lingfield when you are given a soft lead, and he is one to consider laying next time. The next five home broke 23 sec while he did not, and yet he had stolen enough of an advantage to hang on in a close finish. My figures suggest there were at least two and possibly as many as four horses better than him on the day.

If you have any questions about sectional timing then post them below and I will do my best to answer them.