Betfair.net

After winning the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals at home, Detroit fell to Pittsburgh 4-2 in Game 3. A win Thursday however and a 3-1 lead would make it almost inevitable that the Detroit Red Wings will bring home the title for the second consecutive year.

Detroit outplayed the Penguins for stretches in Game 3, but got some bad breaks, took some poor penalties, and suffered from a completely missed extra-man penalty. If the Pens can win again, it would turn the Finals into a best-of-three, and give them a legitimate shot at raising the Cup. This is their elimination game.

AccuScore money line picks have been very good in Pittsburgh home games going 33-17 on the season, an accuracy rate of 66%. Simulations project Game 4 to be a very close contest, but with Detroit winning slightly more often at a 50.3% rate.

Current Betfair odds are [2.34] on the money line to back the Red Wings. With these favorable odds, it would seem prudent to simply back Detroit the rest of the way. The Wings are the favorite, and are more likely to win twice more with favorable odds.