Betfair.net

Game time is about to start and you like Detroit to beat St. Louis. Betfair has a money line including overtime at [1.7] to back Detroit and they also have a regulation time bet on Detroit to back at [2.2]. Naturally one would prefer to take 6/5 odds over 7/10 odds but it has to be determined whether the extra dividend is worth the risk of losing should the game go to OT. Assuming the tie is at [4.3] or 3.3/1 one can do a calculation and confirm that the dividends on the other 2 bets are fair.

The question of whether to bet with or without overtime depends on the teams that are playing. In the 2008/2009 season, 273 games went to overtime. There were a total of 1,230 games played, meaning that 22.1% of games went to overtime. The median number of games teams played in overtime was 19 although Phoenix only played 11 overtime games and Calgary played 12. On the other side of the coin both Toronto and Tampa Bay played in 23 overtime games.

The numbers may seem meaningless but they aren't. Coaches have different philosophies with regards to overtime and Ron Wilson, the Toronto coach, was more than willing to play for the guaranteed point that was assured by getting to the extra period while Mike Keenan, the Calgary coach, preferred to take some extra chances to try and win in regulation time.

Consequently, if a team demonstrates that they are prepared to wait for OT to decide the game and are playing a similar minded team then naturally the best option is to take the team you like including OT. On the other hand, if both teams display an aggressive style to win in regulation, then playing the team you like on the 3 way line is better. Naturally the tie option represents a great bet if both teams demonstrate a desire to play for OT.

For 2008, here are the number of overtime games each team played:
Toronto 23, Tampa Bay 23, NY Rangers 22, Montreal 22, Dallas 22, Chicago 22, Pittsburgh 21, Columbus 21, San Jose 21, Philadelphia 21, Nashville 20, St. Louis 20, New Jersey 19, Anaheim 19, Detroit 19, Buffalo 19, Washington 18, L.A. 18, Florida 18, Ottawa 18, Vancouver 18, Colorado 17, Atlanta 17, Carolina 17, Minnesota 17, Boston 17, Edmonton 16, NY Islanders 15, Calgary 12, Phoenix 11.

Naturally, the number of OT games is not the only criteria used to determine whether to play the team with or without the tie option. The money line of the game is also important. If a team is 1/2 (dividend of [1.5]) or less to win with overtime and is [1.9] with the tie option, then one needs to figure that if the team is that much better they'll win in regulation time.

Mind you, studies on statistical sites show that teams which are heavy favorites of 1/2 or less will usually win in regulation if playing at home but often go to overtime when playing on the road. The reasoning for that is actually fairly simple; teams tend to play harder in front of their own fans. Consequently, lesser teams will play the game of their lives against strong teams when playing at home to show the crowd that they can compete with the best while the stronger teams will often take the weaker teams for granted.

Furthermore, if the game is truly a leader versus a cellar dweller, then the better team will often play their second string goalie to give their star goalie some rest. Whatever the reason, studies showed that when heavily favored teams played on the road there was a 25% higher chance of games going to overtime.

With that in mind, here are 4 great tie bet options for Saturday. Note the markets are not fully liquid yet but dividends of [4.3] to [4.5] will become available.

- Chicago at Florida
- Montreal at Buffalo
- Philadelphia at New Jersey
- San Jose at Anaheim

As well, Edmonton over Calgary and the NY Rangers over Ottawa in regulation time are value plays.