29 Oct 2009

Golf Picks: Volvo World Match Play Tips

Paul Krishnamurty takes a look at the current golf odds and explains his strategy for day one of the World Match Play.

My opening day match betting strategy is crystal clear: oppose Sergio Garcia. Following that strategy repeatedly throughout a very disappointing 2009 campaign would have yielded untold profits, and I see no good reason to abandon it now.

Garcia will play two 18-hole matches on Thursday, against Oliver Wilson followed by Robert Allenby, and the outsider makes plenty of appeal in both games.

Before even dealing with the specifics, it's worth mentioning that backing the outsider in 18-hole matchplay is always a reasonable strategy. There is no greater leveler in golf than this format, as shown most years in the WGC-Accenture Matchplay, an event which is normally littered with shock results. Often these matches boil down to little more than whose putter is hotter during the early holes. That is not something that could have been said about Garcia for a very long time.

Moreover, his record in 18-hole matchplay is poor. He has never reached the quarter-finals from eight tries in that WGC matchplay event, despite the fact that his superior ranking means he will never have started as outsider for a single tie. And while the Spaniard is known as a Ryder Cup legend for his exploits in fourballs and foursomes, his singles record is dire, losing four out of five matches.

This is not a record to inspire betting at odds-on, and supporters must be equally concerned by another lacklustre performance over the weekend. The Castello Masters was played on what is virtually Garcia's home course yet he still couldn't hole a putt under pressure.

Neither of these opponents will give him an easy ride. Wilson has no reason to fear his more illustrious rival, with the Englishman currently 300,000 Euros ahead of Garcia on the Race to Dubai list. As for Allenby, the experienced Aussie has a reputation as a tough head-to-head opponent, who has won ten of his 11 play-offs as a professional. Only two shots separated Garcia and Allenby at the weekend, and this test far better suits the Australian.


Selections: Back Oliver Wilson @ +200 (vs Garcia); Back Robert Allenby @ +180 (vs Garcia)

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