22 Sep 2009

Golf Betting: Finding a Long Shot at the Tour Championship

This week sees the start of the Tour Championship and Steve Rawlings has been having a look at the golf odds in an attempt to find a three-figure winner.

With only seven players trading at or above [100.0] this week, it wasn't particularly difficult to identify which one was worth siding with.

My first instinct was to plump for US PGA champion Y E Yang, but he's understandably gone off the boil now. In addition to his sudden dip in form, he's never played East Lake before.

Although he's never played here before either, John Senden had to be considered as he tops the Greens in Regulation stat on the PGA Tour and hitting greens in regulation has been a key stat at East Lake. Four of the last six winners topped that category the week they won.

Steve Marino also figures highly on the GIR list at 13th but he still hasn't won an event and will also be making his debut at East Lake, so he too was dismissed.

Of the other three-figure players this week, Brian Gay is out of form, Jason Dufner has never won on the PGA Tour, and Heath Slocum has gone cold since he won the Barclays.

That just leaves Jerry Kelly, but he isn't just the pick by default, far from it. His record at East Lake is most respectful; he was 3rd in '04, 13th in '03, and 4th in '02.

When Kelly last played here the greens were bentgrass but they were changed to Bermuda in '07, and that can only help. The event Kelly has already won this year, the Zurich Classic, and the Hawaii Open which he won in 2002, are both played at venues with Bermuda grass greens. The changes can only be a plus.

He was just two shots off the lead with a round to go at the recent Deutsche Bank Championship, before a disappointing one under par final round dropped him back into a tie for 11th, but it at least shows he's still in decent form.

He's definitely the best of the three-figure priced players and certainly worth an interest.