7 Feb 2010

Superbowl Picks

Superbowl Statistics

Bob Sayer has all the facts and figures ahead of the Superbowl.

Statistics abound throughout the years and seasons in the NFL and lots of judgements are based on those numbers about players, coaches and teams. With the season finale upon us what are the crucial numbers in Superbowl XLIV, perhaps you can relate these key statistics to the plethora of betting markets available on the game.

Covering the Spread

Underdogs have had their day in recent Superbowls. The favourite has covered the handicap just twice in the last eight Superbowls.

Indianapolis are 7-2-1 against the handicap in their last ten games and whilst the favourites have won fifteen of the last twenty Superbowls, they have struggled a little more against the spread being 9-8-2 on that statistic.

Points Allowed

It's often said that defence wins Championships so how do teams that concede the least points do in the finale match up - well teams that allowed fewer points in the regular season are 29-13 in the Superbowl (in 2004 the Patriots and Eagles allowed the same number of points) This year the Colts have conceded 307 against the 341 that the Saints allowed. That placed the Colts equal eighth in the points allowed rankings with an average of 19.2 per game - the Saints were further back in those standings down in 20th place, an average of 21.3 points per game being their average.

MVP

Quarterbacks and wide receivers have won eight of the last ten MVP awards. That statistic is strongly reflected in the betting this year and both quarterbacks occupy the first two places in the betting market. Bear this in mind if you are thinking of flying in the face of the statistics and supporting a defensive player for MVP honours then there have only been three of those in the last 23 Superbowls. Make sure you get at least a double figure price if you are supporting a player on the defensive side of the ball for MVP honours. In fact favouring each of the quarterbacks in the MVP market is a way to support your team at better odds, if either side are to win it's highly likely that either Manning or Brees will play a major role.

Winning Margin

Despite some handicaps larger than today's five of the last eight Superbowls have been settled by four of fewer points, something to bare in mind when taking a look at the winning margin markets.

Head to Head

Conflicting messages from this match up the Saints have won five of the last seven meetings with the Colts, but Indianapolis have outscored the Saints 96-31 in their last two clashes. The last meeting coming on the opening day of the 2007 season and the Colts taught the Saints a lesson that day blowing them away 41-10, they have also won the last two contests. Recent history is with the Colts.

The favourite in the match up also does well so the Colts are favoured again - 4-0 is the record of the favourite and that's against the spread also.

Surface

Both of these two play their home games inside and on an artificial surface so will the grass here at Dolphins Stadium make any difference. If recent records are anything to go by the answer for both teams is a resounding no. The Saints are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games on grass and the Colts have a similar record in their last eleven being 9-1-1.

Scoring

Pay careful attention to the ebb and flow of the game by quarter, in the last ten Superbowls the first quarter has only contained 48 points. Nine of those ten first quarters have contained seven or less points - the only one to top that figure being the Colts last trip to the Superbowl in 2007 - 20 points racked up in that first quarter - will their experience get them off to a fast start on Sunday? The points totals by quarter in the last ten Superbowls are as follows Q1-48, Q2-123, Q3-97, Q4-182.

Experience

Much of the attention will be focused on Manning attempting to cement his legacy with a second Lombardi Trophy, but the Colts have a number of important players who were with the team for Super Bowl XLI. Among the Colts players who own Super Bowl rings are Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Gary Brackett, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Jeff Saturday. The Saints, on the other hand, have limited Super Bowl experience. Randall Gay played in two of the Patriots' four visits to the big game, starting against the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, while Darren Sharper was a rookie with the Packers when they lost to the Broncos following the 1997 season.

Just some of the statistics and numbers that surround Superbowl XLIV and if you pay attention to those it may help you make you mind up on the plethora of betting markets that are available on the game. Whatever you do - enjoy it.