17 Sep 2009

NFL Week 2 Betting: Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

Graham Lewis takes a look at another clash in the NFL Week 2, this time between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Diego Chargers, in an attempt to find the football betting value.

Week one saw the Ravens make small but costly mistakes. They didn't have trouble putting points on the board, but they didn't have trouble conceding them either. This has hit their odds in week two's visit to the San Diego Chargers. The question now is whether this means that there is good value in backing, laying or trading them this weekend.

Most of the Ravens' problems came from errors in special team plays. Add a blocked punt, which led to a Kansas touchdown, as well as a missed field goal and the outcome was much closer than it might have been. Both must have been painful for coach John Harbaugh who is a special teams expert.

Personally I didn't see enough to make me worry. It was mistakes rather than out and out bad play, which caused the problems, and they did push on to win the game after all.

Week two opponents the Chargers also had a close call in week one, narrowly edging out the Oakland Raiders. It was a game that they should have won easily if you went by the odds on offer before kick off.

You have to analyze the game to examine whether the Chargers had a bad game, or the Raiders had a great game. After watching it back I think it was a little of both. I don't really think the Chargers deserved the win. The Raiders didn't let the Chargers leave unscathed though, linebacker Antwan Applewhite, center Nick Hardwick and right guard Louis Vasquez all picked up injuries during the game.

There are some holes in the Chargers that are there to be exploited. While the Raiders took advantage, I think the Ravens might make more of the openings. I have been discussing this over the last few days and opinion is split. Take all the information you can before game day, watch the highlights (or games if you have access), check the injury lists and make your decision from there.

We are still in that awkward start of season period where there is so much still to be learned about each team's potential performance. Bets are somewhat risky and that can open the odds out and provide a lot of value.

So two 'only just' winners from week one meet on Sunday and it could prove to be a close contest. If the Ravens arrive in San Diego in top form then I feel they could take this game. I have looked at different strategies and I will be trading on this one by taking the early odds in the win market and trading out during the game, assuming that it all goes to plan and the Ravens take the lead at some point.

While it is still too early for the money to flood in and set the odds in the other markets on the game, there could be some good opportunities. The handicap is set at 3.5 points in San Diego's favor. This could be ripe for trading profit come game day.