17 Oct 2009

NFL Picks

The Chiefs Are Due

The Betting Advantage finds some NFL betting value in taking the winless Kansas City Chiefs on the money line to beat the Washington Redskins.

It is week 6 of the NFL season and the Washington Redskins have made history. When the Redskins face the Chiefs on Sunday it will mark the first time that a team has faced a winless team in each of its first six games. The Redskins can also add to their somewhat historic season as the team that the Detroit Lions beat to end their 19 game losing streak.

The Redskins carry a mark of 2-3 through the first five games. The two wins were at home against St. Louis and Tampa Bay by two and three points respectively. Both of these clubs have yet to win a game this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a much tougher schedule to date than the Redskins. The Chiefs started the season in Baltimore, followed by a home game against the Oakland Raiders. This week will mark the fourth consecutive week that they will play a team from the NFC East. Last week they were so close to their first win of the season, but had problems with tackling Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin. The Chiefs squandered a 13-3 lead in the third quarter despite quarterback Matt Cassel throwing for 253 yards and two touchdowns, without throwing an interception.

After Austin made some big runs after making two of his catches last week you can bet the Chiefs focused on tackling in practice this week.

In order to come out with the win this week the Chiefs will need to do two things. They cannot let Santana Moss hurt them like Austin did last week and they will need to establish a run game. Larry Johnson has not had much room to run this season. Johnson is averaging 2.4 yards per carry this season, compared to his career average of 4.4.

Presently on Betfair you can back the Chiefs for [3.25]. I expect these odds to drop by Sunday so try to get in quickly.