5 Oct 2009

Football Preview: It's More Than Just A Game

The Betting Advantage previews the Monday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings in order to find the NFL betting value.

Football fans have been waiting for this game for two years. Brett Favre will play against the Green Bay Packers for the first time ever. Favre spent 16 years with the Packers before leaving for New York last season. Now he is in Minnesota, in the same backfield as Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings have lived up to the hype through the first three games of this season as they have won all three. Last week's win was due in large part to some last second heroics from Favre.

Since Favre left Green Bay it has been Aaron Rodgers who has held down the fort. In just one full season as a starting quarterback in the NFL, Rodgers has shown he is among the best in the league in his position.

Looking at this game on Betfair, the match odds market is quite interesting. Bets on the Packers are getting matched as high as [2.98]. The most popular traded price is [2.88]. This is great value for the Packers here. I think Green Bay is one of the most underrated teams at this point in the season.

I once read somewhere that there are two ways to bet. The first is to look at the statistics and match-ups to come up with a bet based purely on quantitative measure. The other is to try to get in the heads of teams and players. Think of the emotions of the players. Of course the best way to bet would be a combination of the two.

The reason I bring this up is that I'm sure much of the money coming in on the Vikings is because they feel that Brett Favre has more to play for than anyone else on the field. I think that the Packers are out to show Favre up as well. They don't want to hear about how Favre beat his former team. The Packers want to win this game every bit as much as Favre does.

Looking at the two teams I think that Green Bay is the better of the two. Obviously since the game is being played in Minnesota, they should be the favorite. I think that the Vikings have a 60% chance of winning this game. Therefore the Packers would have a 40% chance, so that's where you will find the value with these odds.