23 Oct 2009

NFL Picks

Take The Bears Over The Bengals

The Betting Advantage explains why he thinks the Bears offer football betting value this weekend.

The Cincinnati Bengals were rolling along until last week when they hit a road block. The Houston Texans showed they were a much better team when they dismantled the Bengals 28-17 in Cincinnati. To win the game outright the Texans were paying odds of over [3.0] pregame. This was a pick that I gave in one of last week's articles.

Looking ahead to this week, once again I'm laying the Bengals. In the first quarter of last week's game, Antwan Odom left the clash with a torn right Achilles. The Defensive End will be absent for the remainder of the season. This is a huge blow for the Bengal defense, which has looked good at times. Odom had eight sacks already this season and was also huge in the Bengals' run defense.

Jonathan Fanene will step in at the right end spot to take Odom's place, but will not have the same presence. I'm expecting this loss to affect the whole defense because the Bengals will not get the same kind of pressure on the quarterback. This will be a bigger setback than most people are thinking.

Looking at the Bears, they did lose last week to the Falcons. Atlanta has become a very difficult place to play at. Prior to that loss, Chicago had won three straight with a big win over Pittsburgh included. Matt Forte had seemed to be back on track until last week. I expect that he will come up with a good effort this week against Cincinnati. Jay Cutler looks to get more comfortable with each passing week in the Bears' offense; last week in Atlanta was the first time Cutler threw for 300 yards with his new team.

Right now on Betfair you can back the Bears for better than even odds at [2.02]. I like this bet as I think the Bears have over a 50% chance of winning this game.