18 Oct 2009

NFL Betting

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Eric G looks for any NFL betting value in the Monday night clash between the Broncos and the Chargers.

Who would have thought that entering this big Monday night game that the Broncos would be perfect on the season while the Chargers would be a .500 team? And for that matter, is there a more underrated 5-0 team in the NFL than the Denver Broncos?

They simply do not get the respect they deserve and despite their huge win last week against the Patriots, they still find themselves heavy underdogs in this contest. You might as well take advantage of this fact before the world and the line setters realize that this Denver team is for real.

First off, as much as their offense gets media attention with Kyle Orton's supposed mediocrity and Brandon Marshall's off-field antics, the bottom line is this team is built around their defense. They rank first in the NFL in allowing only 8.6 points per game. Consider that the Giants are a distant second at 14.2. That's a huge discrepancy. They also rank 2nd in Yards given up per game at 252.8 and are 5th in the league in Pass yards against per game at 171.5. Still, nobody seems to respect the Broncos since quarterback Kyle Orton isn't the elite quarterback they used to have in Jay Cutler. But the fact of the matter is the Broncos average 376.8 yards per game on offense, good enough for 6th in the league and their rush offense ranks 5th in the NFL with 139.0 yards per game.

Rookie running back Knowshon Moreno is proving to be the real deal. He totaled 124 yards last week and leads NFL rookies with 337 rush yards so far, while underappreciated Kyle Orton ranks 1st in the AFC with a 138.7 4th quarter passer rating. He's consistent and clutch, two qualities the Broncos were looking for in a quarterback when they were essentially forced to trade Jay Cutler.

Last year the big story in the AFC West was the implosion of the Broncos which eventually led to the Chargers making the playoffs. But make no mistake about it this 2009 Denver team isn't the same as last year. There's no question the Chargers have a great offense, led by quarterback Phillip Rivers who is 4-0 lifetime on Monday night. They have also won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams and are coming off a bye week. Nonetheless, its very difficult looking at the odds in this game and not be tempted to back the Broncos at 2.6. As good as their offense can be their defense is still pedestrian, near the bottom of the league in most categories.

Will the Broncos ever get the respect they deserve? Is their 5-0 start all smoke and mirrors? I don't think so and I am going to continue riding them until they prove me otherwise.