16 Oct 2009

NFL Betting

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Betting Advantage takes a look at Sunday's game between the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Where is the NFL betting value?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be trying to avoid their first 0-6 start in 24 years. To do this they must avoid losing to a Panthers team that has also performed below expectations this season. It is interesting to note that Carolina is the only team that hasn't won a game against the spread so far this season.

The Panthers picked up their first win of the season last week over the Washington Redskins. It wasn't the prettiest of games, but a win is a win. Carolina totaled just 248 total yards on offense. Jake Delhomme completed 16 of 25 passes for one touchdown and one interception. He finished the game with a quarterback rating of 82.2, which ties his strongest effort of the season.

Tampa Bay (0-5) lost last week to the Philadelphia Eagles. This was hardly a surprise, but it was nice to see Josh Johnson settle in a bit more at the quarterback position. With the Buccaneers behind for the whole game Johnson was forced to make 50 pass attempts. The Buccaneer quarterback completed 26 of them and had a pair of touchdown passes. Johnson definitely adds a running threat to the Bucs' line up. The rookie quarterback has rushed for at least 40 yards in each of his first two starts.

Looking at the match odds market on Betfair, Carolina can be backed at [1.59]. This really isn't a surprise as most books have them as a 2.5 point favorite. In the same market the Bucs can be backed for [2.62]. You may be able to get a slightly better price just before game time, but I expect the odds to stay relatively in the same area. I think the value lies with the home dog here. Both teams have not shown much this season and I wouldn't trust Carolina on the road. Go with the Bucs here.