25 Oct 2009

NFL Betting

San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans

Eric G looks for any NFL betting value as the 49ers head to Texas.

The San Francisco 49ers head to Texas to face the Houston Texans on Sunday for a game that is backing San Fran at 2.6 compared to Houston at 1.61.

While still winning one, losing one, the Texans offense has been dynamite the last two games, especially Matt Schaud who has thrown for 763 yards and 6 touchdowns during that span. He's already on pace to easily surpass his career-high 15 in 2008. No surprise his main target has been Andre Johnson, who is coming off a 135 yard performance, has three 100+ games this season and is therefore averaging 95.3 yards per game. Owen Daniels is second with 374 yards in the air. They have a decent option on the ground with Steve Slaton, although the 49ers are 7th in the league in the rush yards given per-game.

The Texans defence is a little more vulnerable, especially in their rush yards given per-game at 125. This is VERY good news for the 49ers who will welcome back Frank Gore who has missed the last two games. The last time he played a full game, he ran for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. He'll be extremely anxious in this game and I expect him to go off. The Houston Texans are going to see a player as motivated as it gets.

Speaking of which, Michael Crabtree is making his long awaited debut. After holding out in pre-season, the number one chosen player by the 49ers finally signed a contract short while back. The team feels he's ready to play. The question is will Quarterback Shaun Hill be able to get him the ball? He has 5 touchdown passes on the season and averages 179.6 yards per game. The highest he's thrown this year is 209 yards in their first game of the season. They recently have found a nice option in Vernon Davis however, who appears to be where the team will go too often. At the end of the day, it's fair to back the Texans at 1.61, but I'm thinking that with Gore back and the debut of Crabtree, too many things point towards the script ending with a 49er's win.