9 Jul 2009

CFL Week 2 Preview: Edmonton Eskimos v Montreal Alouettes

The Betting Advantage looks at the CFL week 2 matchup between unbeaten Montreal and Edmonton.

The Calgary Stampeders got an early season wakeup call in week one. The Montreal Alouettes went into Calgary and beat the 2008 Grey Cup Champions 40-27. It was the Alouettes who Calgary beat to claim the Championship, so for Montreal they were happy to get some revenge. Calgary went 0-3 against the Als last season so this win could be huge for team confidence.

Montreal will look to keep the early season momentum going as they host the Edmonton Eskimos tonight. Edmonton didn't look quite as good as Montreal did in week one but they did come out on top in their game, defeating the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 19-17.

The Eskimos were expected to win as they were nine point favourites in the contest. Edmonton also got some terrible news from this game as they have lost running back Jesse Lumsden for the season after he had just two carries. This will be a big blow for the Edmonton offence.

Edmonton finished with just 33 rushing yards in the entire game, relying heavily on the arm of Ricky Ray. Signing Lumsden in the off season was supposed to help the Eskimos offence become more two dimensional, but now there might have to be a change of plan.

The line in the week two game has Montreal as 7.5 point favourites. In Edmonton's last 15 trips to Montreal they are 5-10 and 6-8-1 against the spread. Edmonton tends to play much better at home than on the road. Going back to last year, in Edmonton's last ten road games they are 3-7 and 3-6-1 against the spread. I think the Alouettes will handle this Edmonton team; I like them to cover the 7.5.

If history is an indicator, this should be a defensive battle. In Montreal's last ten games at home versus Western Division teams, nine of them have gone under the total. Edmonton has played to totals under the line in eight of the past 10 trips playing teams from the Eastern Division. These are strong indicators that the total will go under the 52.5 point total that Betfair has set. I still like the under but am cautious not to put too much on it because Edmonton will be throwing the ball on most downs.

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