19 Feb 2010

NBA Predictions

Unpredictable Bobcats seek upset tonight

Bob Sayer takes a look at the NBA odds and tries to see if tonight will bring an upset.

Looking at the season record of the Bobcats is like looking in the mirror; their statistics are a reflection of each other (won 26, lost 26, their last five games split 5-5, and you can transpose their home and road record 19-7 at home and 7-19 on the road). But the one statistic that does stand out before tonight's game against the Cavaliers is that they are one of only two teams, the other being the Denver Nuggets, to have beaten the NBA leading Cleveland side twice this season.

Tonight in Charlotte sees the last of the regular season contests between the two teams but I have a feeling that this might not be the last these two see of each other this year. In fact, if the season ended today, a Cavaliers Bobcats match-up would be the result. The physical style of basketball that the Bobcats play appears to upset the free scoring Cavaliers and they have had their number in the last two meetings after losing the first time the two met earlier in the season.

But the Bobcats can blow hot and cold as their record suggests. Yes, they have seen off the Cavaliers twice but they have also managed to lose twice to the league worst Nets. It appeared that they didn't respect the Nets much in their match-up on Tuesday and paid a heavy price, getting outrebounded 47-36 and outscored 103-94. That loss will have dented their confidence and they also have injury worries, with Nazr Mohammed and Tyson Chandler both sitting out practice on Thursday, the same day the team announced former Cavalier DeSagana Diop will miss two weeks with a sprained MCL. Chandler is doubtful for Friday while Mohammed seems more likely to play.

The Bobcats have reacted by trading positively, acquiring veteran Theo Ratliff from San Antonio and, in a more significant deal, taking mercurial forward Tyrus Thomas from Chicago. The fourth overall draft pick in 2006, he still has a great deal to prove but would appear to have an opportunity to fulfill his potential in Charlotte.

Cleveland have found this season plain sailing for the most part but they relinquished the longest winning streak in the league last night. Looking for a franchise-record 14th straight victory, the Cavaliers lost 118-116 in overtime despite star man LeBron James' 43 points, 15 assists, and 13 rebounds. That was their first game since the All Star break so perhaps they were a little rusty and I'd be expecting a more fluid performance this evening as they bid to bounce back.

I'm sure that they would prefer different opposition given the way results have gone against the Bobcats this year but fresh legs and another scoring option have been added to the Cavaliers squad in the shape of the former Wizards star Antawn Jamieson, who never averaged less than 19.6 points per game with the currently struggling Washington franchise. Along with LeBron James, Mo Williams, and Shaquille O'Neal, he gives the Cleveland side plenty of scoring options.

Charlotte are an unpredictable side and clearly know how to play against Cleveland but the addition of Jamieson will surely give the away side too much firepower and I'll be backing them to bounce back from their defeat against the Nuggets and start on another winning streak that will lead to the play-offs and possibly another meeting with tonight's opponents.