16 May 2009

NBA Betting Picks

Analyzing two Game 7s

Jonathan Lee looks forward to this weekend's NBA action.

Both remaining NBA series have been pushed to Game 7s. While some may have expected Boston and Orlando to play each other tough, no one expected Houston to push L.A. especially without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady available.

Both teams have had several chances to take control of this series. The losses of Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe have been magnified this series for Boston with their inability to consistently produce points and their difficulty matching up with Rashard Lewis. The Magic have survived as a sort of dysfunctional family with Dwight Howard demanding the ball, and the coach panicking on the sidelines. Despite those internal problems Orlando forced a deciding Game 7, albeit on the road.
For both series it is difficult to envision either road team pulling out a win.

Historically road teams do not fare well in Game 7 situations. Teams earn homecourt throughout the regular season, which means the better team is hosting the final game of a series. AccuScore projects the Lakers as a big 83% favorite to pull out the victory on Sunday despite their questionable defensive effort and lack of production from Andrew Bynum and Derek Fisher.

Boston meanwhile is a 53% favorite to win according to simulations. AccuScore has gone a solid 25-18 in Orlando road game point spreads. Point spread picks have been stellar all season with a record of 89-70 when the home team is favored by 2 to 3.5 points. Currently Boston is favored by 2.5.