7 Jun 2009

NBA Betting

Analyzing the NBA stats

AccuScore Analyst Jonathan Lee looks ahead to Sunday's NBA action.

The Lakers came out focused and determined, none more so that Kobe Bryant who scored 40 points in a dominant Game 1 victory. L.A. will look to continue playing good defense and an effective team game around Kobe to pick up a 2-0 series lead on Sunday.

The Magic presented severe match-up problems for the Cavaliers, but Thursday's game clearly showed that those no longer exist against the Lakers. Lamar Odom continued his solid play from the final two contests against Denver, and Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum present different problems for Dwight Howard inside.

The key factor for Orlando will be the play of Rashard Lewis. The veteran forward had a dud in the opening game scoring just 8 points on 2-10 shooting. He is the one player that still has a favorable match-up when he is defended by Gasol on the perimeter. Hedo Turkoglu also needs to step up his game as he seemed like a complete non-factor despite being second on the team with 13 points (3-11 shooting, 4 turnovers).

AccuScore has done very well this season on Over/Unders with an accuracy rate of 54% producing +5080 units ROI. The median Over/Under is currently 203.5. AccuScore's O/U Tool has the Under occurring in 53.4% of simulations.

The money line odds to back the Magic seem favorable at 3.81 (+281) which translate to a 26% implied probability. AccuScore simulations show that the odds are actually very close to this with Orlando winning just 28% of simulations. Simulations are updated twice daily up until gametime Sunday so check back at AccuScore.com for the latest simulation results and information.