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Dwight Howard used a dominant performance in overtime of Game 4 to push Orlando to the brink of the NBA Finals. LeBron James will need yet another superhuman effort, and much more help from his teammates, to extend this series.

With the way these match-ups have played out it is still strange to see Cleveland being such large favorites even at home for Game 5. Zydrunas Ilgaukas has been rendered ineffective offensively and defensively. His shot is not falling well and he is not quick enough to defend Howard in the post. Varejao is better defensively, but the overtime period showed that Howard is able to overpower him, and Howard is starting to knock down his free throws. Mo Williams has played very poorly in the series shooting poorly and making poor decisions with the ball.

The Magic have been able to exploit match-ups endlessly to get Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, and Mikael Pietrus open three-pointers every game. Current odds to back the Magic money line are 4.7 implying a probability of just 21%. AccuScore projections give the Magic a 28% chance of winning.

While I would expect LeBron James to do everything possible to avoid a closeout in Cleveland, I still cannot get away from the fact that the Magic are a terrible match-up for the Cavs and are clearly the better team in this series. Taking 4.7 (+370) odds to me is a great value bet.

The player prop points bets listed for LeBron, Mo Williams, and Rashard Lewis are all listed at 1.02 (-5000) odds. There is poor value there on any side for bettors because of the small payout associated. AccuScore's Prop Bet Analyzer places all three point props listed at close to 50/50 meaning market odds would need to be much closer to 2.0 (evens) to be of decent value.