24 Sep 2009

MLB Betting: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

The Betting Advantage looks at Thursday's match-up between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians in an attempt to uncover the MLB betting value.

A trip to Cleveland has gotten the Detroit Tigers out of their recent slump. The Tigers will go for a three game sweep of the Indians tonight in order to maintain their 2.5 game lead over the Minnesota Twins for the lead in the American League Central.

The Indians may just be the worst team in baseball right now. It's like they just don't care as they've lost their past 10 games, getting outscored by 40 runs in those contests. During their losing streak the Indians have averaged just 2.5 runs per game. Their offence is bad, their defence is bad. It is highly possible that there will be value in every team that plays the Indians for the remainder of the MLB season.

I am surprised to see odds on Betfair close to [1.50] for the Tigers tonight. The Tigers are starting Justin Verlander, who leads the American League in strikeouts. In Verlander's last 58 starts against a team with a losing record the Tigers are 40-18. The Indians aren't just the average team with a losing record, they are much worse.

Cleveland will counter with Carlos Carrasco on the mound. If you have never heard of Carrasco you are not alone. Carrasco was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Cliff Lee deal and is making just his fourth career start in the majors. The first three starts haven't turned out well for the 22 year old as he is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. His first major league start was against the Tigers. He went just three innings, allowing 6 earned runs on nine hits. Three of those hits were of the long ball variety. I expect the Tigers to have his number again tonight.