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One of the questions baseball bettors always struggle with is whether to play the run line or the money line for a particular game. Generally speaking, the extra run is worth about 90 cents in the playoffs. So, a game with a money line of [1.7] for the favorite will often equate to a run line of -1.5 with odds of [2.6], particularly if the favorite is playing at home.

The general trend for the last decade has been that teams win in the playoffs by 1 run only 27% of the time. That figure is comparable to the regular season. When the home team wins, the number of 1 run games jumps a bit. In 2009 28.3% of games were decided by 1 run when home teams won and 24.2% when the visitors were victorious.

For the teams in this year's playoffs, here are the number of 1 run games each team played in the 2009 regular season:

AL: New York Yankees - 38 (23.4%), Boston - 39 (24%), L.A. Angels - 45 (27.7%), Minnesota - 43 (26.5%)

NL: St. Louis - 45 (27.7%), Philadelphia - 45 (27.7%), L.A. Dodgers - 50 (30.8%), Colorado - 43 (26.5%)

Needless to say, the 1 run games were higher in the National League than the American. The differential between the leagues could be due to slightly lower scores in the National League.

Not surprisingly, when the top 2 pitchers for each team were playing each other the games proved to be far lower scoring and the number of 1 run games increased. When teams use their number 3 or number 4 pitchers the runs increase, and the number of 1 run games decrease.

With that in mind, here are some general rules to help determine whether it's better to wager on the money line or run line.

If the game is between the ace pitchers, bet the money line only. In first round series with the 2 aces on the mound, scores of 3-2, 4-3 etc. are very common. Giving the extra run is dangerous.

If you believe the visiting team has the better starting pitcher and like them to win, consider the run line. Run line differentials in this case will usually be about 60-70 cents but it's generally worth it.

When betting teams with low 1 run records, particularly in the American League, and they are playing another team with low one run records bet the run line. The New York Yankees have so few 1 run games in comparison to other teams, thanks mostly to their bullpen. Unlike other teams the Yankees know when they get to the final inning Mariano Rivera is almost certain to shut the visitors down. The same goes for Papelbon of the Red Sox. Consequently a 2 run lead for the Yankees in the last inning is almost a guaranteed win whereas a 2 run lead for a team like Toronto or Baltimore often results in the closer blowing it.

When two teams with high 1 run records play each other, especially in the National League, play the money line. Almost 1/3 of L.A. Dodgers games have been decided by 1 run and almost 28% of St. Louis games were decided by a single run. In a close series with great closers and managers who show they play for the close win (usually with decisions such as sacrificing late in the game, intentional walks etc.) why take the chance?

It's also useful to see what the scores were among the teams in the season series. For the first 2 series, each team will usually have played each other a dozen times in the regular season. If both teams show scores usually in the range of 6-2 or 8-3 it's obviously meaningful and the run line becomes a better bet.

The strategy, however, changes in the World Series. Once the 2 finalists are decided, the number of 1 run games increases dramatically. In the last 6 years over 40% of games have been decided by 1 run and in National League parks it's almost 50%. The teams are all playing very defensive managerial styles and the two finalists rarely play each other in the regular season. Betting the run line, similar to betting the puck line in hockey in the playoffs, is suicide. The money line is the only play in the World Series.

One important thing to point out is that the run lines at Betfair have a lot of liquidity unlike the rest of the year. Consequently if you do play the run line and the team goes up by 3 or 4 runs you can probably lay off the bet to guarantee a profit. Like all bets at Betfair, trading the markets, whether betting the run line, money line or totals is the best strategy.